{"id":3361,"date":"2026-07-03T07:54:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T05:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/?p=3361"},"modified":"2026-07-03T07:54:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T05:54:59","slug":"21-kutatokozpont-felmeres-tisza-fidesz-2026-junius","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/belfold\/2026\/07\/03\/21-kutatokozpont-felmeres-tisza-fidesz-2026-junius\/","title":{"rendered":"Tov\u00e1bbra is jelent\u0151s el\u0151nnyel vezet a Tisza P\u00e1rt a Fidesz el\u0151tt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A 21 Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpont j\u00fanius v\u00e9gi felm\u00e9r\u00e9se szerint a v\u00e1lasztani tud\u00f3 szavaz\u00f3k k\u00f6r\u00e9ben 67 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon \u00e1ll a Tisza P\u00e1rt, m\u00edg a Fidesz t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga 24 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos. A kutat\u00f3c\u00e9g adatai alapj\u00e1n a Mi Haz\u00e1nk 6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos eredm\u00e9nnyel a harmadik olyan form\u00e1ci\u00f3, amely bejutna a parlamentbe.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9g k\u00f6r\u00e9ben a Tisza P\u00e1rt 57 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos, a Fidesz 20 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos, a Mi Haz\u00e1nk pedig 5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ggal b\u00edr. A 21 Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpont friss adatait els\u0151k\u00e9nt a <a href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/belfold\/2026\/07\/03\/21-kutatokozpont-felmeres-2026-junius-breaking\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">24.hu<\/a> publik\u00e1lta. Az int\u00e9zet m\u00e1jusi felm\u00e9r\u00e9se nagyon hasonl\u00f3 er\u0151viszonyokat r\u00f6gz\u00edtett, akkor a p\u00e1rtv\u00e1laszt\u00f3kn\u00e1l 69-23, a teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9gben pedig 60-20 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot m\u00e9rtek a Tisza jav\u00e1ra. A k\u00e9t kutat\u00e1s m\u00f3dszertana azonban elt\u00e9rt, \u00edgy az eredm\u00e9nyek nem hasonl\u00edthat\u00f3k \u00f6ssze pontosan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hibrid adatfelv\u00e9tel j\u00fanius 23. \u00e9s j\u00falius 1. k\u00f6z\u00f6tt zajlott 1500 f\u0151 megk\u00e9rdez\u00e9s\u00e9vel, ahol az online k\u00e9rd\u0151\u00edv linkj\u00e9t SMS-ben k\u00fcldt\u00e9k ki, m\u00edg a 65 \u00e9v felettiek politikai preferenci\u00e1j\u00e1t telefonon t\u00e9rk\u00e9pezt\u00e9k fel. Ezt a m\u00f3dszertant alkalmazt\u00e1k a 2024-es EP- \u00e9s a 2026-os parlamenti v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si m\u00e9r\u00e9sekn\u00e9l is. A teljes mint\u00e1t a KSH 2022-es n\u00e9psz\u00e1ml\u00e1l\u00e1si adatai alapj\u00e1n s\u00falyozt\u00e1k lak\u00f3hely, nem, kor \u00e9s iskolai v\u00e9gzetts\u00e9g szerint, \u00edgy az reprezentat\u00edv a teljes lakoss\u00e1gra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A mint\u00e1ban kapott \u00e9rt\u00e9kek hibahat\u00e1ra a teljes lakoss\u00e1gra n\u00e9zve plusz-m\u00ednusz 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kpont. A r\u00e9szsokas\u00e1gokn\u00e1l a hibahat\u00e1r enn\u00e9l nagyobb is lehet, a kisp\u00e1rtok eset\u00e9ben viszont kisebb: egy 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos p\u00e1rtn\u00e1l plusz-m\u00ednusz 1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kpont. A 21 Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpont kutat\u00e1sa omnibuszk\u00e9nt val\u00f3sult meg, ami azt jelenti, hogy a k\u00e9rd\u0151\u00edvnek t\u00f6bb megrendel\u0151je is volt, a p\u00e1rtpreferenci\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 k\u00e9rd\u00e9st pedig az int\u00e9zet a saj\u00e1t k\u00f6lts\u00e9g\u00e9n k\u00e9rdezte le.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A 21 Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpont j\u00fanius v\u00e9gi felm\u00e9r\u00e9se szerint a v\u00e1lasztani tud\u00f3 szavaz\u00f3k k\u00f6r\u00e9ben 67 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon \u00e1ll a Tisza P\u00e1rt, m\u00edg a Fidesz t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga 24 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos. A kutat\u00f3c\u00e9g adatai alapj\u00e1n a Mi Haz\u00e1nk 6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos eredm\u00e9nnyel a harmadik olyan form\u00e1ci\u00f3, amely bejutna a parlamentbe. A teljes n\u00e9pess\u00e9g k\u00f6r\u00e9ben a Tisza P\u00e1rt 57 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos, a Fidesz 20 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","_zh_crosspost_remote_site":"","_zh_crosspost_remote_post_id":"","_zh_crosspost_last_sync_at":"","_zh_crosspost_last_sync_direction":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[1838,515,1836,1038,1837,248],"class_list":["post-3361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-belfold","tag-21-kutatokozpont","tag-fidesz","tag-kozvelemeny-kutatas","tag-mi-hazank","tag-partpreferencia","tag-tisza-part"],"blocksy_meta":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3361"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3361\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3362,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3361\/revisions\/3362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zemino.hu\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}